The Strategic Sovereign Fund for the Development of Côte d’Ivoire (FSD-CI) An Ex-Ante Quantitative Assessment Using A Dynamic Recursive CGE Model, an Extensive Battery of Econometric Tests, Robustness Analysis, Risk Scenarios, And Institutional Benchmarking

Abstract

Dayoro Donatien

This article presents an ex-ante quantitative assessment of the macroeconomic impact of the Strategic Sovereign Wealth Fund for the Development of Côte d’Ivoire (FSD-CI), established by an ordinance dated April 15, 2026. This expanded version employs four complementary methodological approaches: (i) a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium (CGE) model featuring four sectors (extractive, agriculture, industry, services) and two factors (labor, capital), calibrated using 2024 Ivorian data and augmented with a monetary block representing the CFA franc peg and a stylized social accounting matrix; (ii) an extensive battery of twelve econometric tests applied to macroeconomic time series from 2011 to 2025 (ADF, KPSS, Engle-Granger, Chow, Breusch-Pagan, Breusch-Godfrey, Jarque-Bera, Wald, Granger, VIF, OLS HC3, VAR with IRF); (iii) a 500-run Monte Carlo simulation to quantify parametric uncertainty; and (iv) an institutional benchmarking analysis covering ten African and international sovereign wealth funds, including intermediate cases (Gabon’s FGIS, Algeria’s FRR) and "zombie" funds (Venezuela’s FONDEN). The results converge on an additional cumulative GDP growth gain of between 1.5% and 8.5% by 2035 (depending on the scenario), an endowment of USD 1.4 to 4.5 billion by 2030, and a public investment multiplier of 4.02 over ten years. The fund absorbs 60% of a simulated 25% negative shock to extractive revenues and significantly mitigates the impact of a composite crisis scenario. A cross-analysis of governance scores and financial performance across the expanded sample explains 98% of the observed variance. An integrated cost-benefit analysis reveals a cumulative net GDP gain of +7.2% after accounting for sectoral crowding-out effects and opportunity costs. The primary vulnerability identified remains institutional: the quality of governance is the key determinant of the performance of emerging-market sovereign wealth funds.

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