Katim Touray
Gambia Revenue Authority, Revenue House, 78-79 Liberation Avenue, Banjul The, Gambia
Publications
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Research Article
Mathematical Modelling and Forecasting of Food Price Inflation in The Gambia: Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Regime Dependence, and Comparative Time-Series and Machine Learning Approaches
Author(s): Katim Touray*, Bai Mbye Cham and Madiba Darry
The Gambia experienced significant food price inflation between 2021 and 2024, with food inflation reaching 24.4% in September 2023 amid dalasi depreciation and elevated global food prices. This study examines whether exchange rate pass-through to food prices is stable or regime-dependent and evaluates alternative approaches for forecasting food inflation. Monthly food and headline Consumer Price Index data from the Gambia Bureau of Statistics for January 2012–August 2025 are combined with FAO-sourced GMD/USD exchange rate data. Engle-Granger cointegration results show no long-run relationship over the full sample (p = 0.43), but significant cointegration during the 2021– 2025 depreciation episode (p = 0.0015), indicating that exchange rate pass-through is regime-dependent and more pronounced during periods of rapid depreciation. Forecast evaluation further shows that an e.. Read More»