Jacopo Martelli
Convitto Nazionale di Roma, Rome, Italy
Publications
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Research Article
Development, Calibration Repair and Cross-Study Transportability of a Genomics-Informed 12-Month Mortality Model for Glioma
Author(s): Jacopo Martelli*
Background: Early mortality in glioma is driven by age and by molecular markers, notably IDH1 mutation, but most published prognostic tools rely on curated trial or single-institution data. Public genomic cohorts could support broader models, yet their heterogeneity makes pooled accuracy hard to interpret, and the calibration of such models is rarely audited. Methods: We developed gradient-boosting and logistic-regression models for 12-month all-cause mortality (a landmark label) in 3,590 patients with glioma from 24 public Bio Portal studies, using age, sex, a 45-gene mutation panel, panel mutation count and a sequencing indicator. Performance was assessed by 5-fold out-of-fold cross-validation and by leave-one-study-out validation in the six largest studies. To audit the pipeline, we reconstructed its out-of-fold score distribution from th.. Read More»
