The Economic Impact of Climatic Change Variables on Trend of Crops Production

Abstract

Hanan E. El habeeb Elemam, Hamdon A Abdelrhman, Maruod E Maruod, Tasneem Elmokashfi Almaleeh Abu and Ogal S Ali

The objectives of this study were to evaluate the impact of climate change on crops production and food security achievement, identify which climatic factors affect crops production, assess the impact of climate change on food security achievement, to know the socio- economic structure of households, investigate the impact of climate variables on crops production cross a year in Sheikan locality (2005- 2014 cropping season). The primary data were collected from the households via questionnaire (250) respondents selected randomly by a multi-stage random sampling technique. The statistical analysis and time series method were used to analyze the collected data. The results showed that total crop production varies from cropping season to another. According to the climatic variables such as rainfall rate, temperature and humidity, the highest total production of millet illustrated (4,950 ton) was in 2008/2009 cropping season while the lowest (862 ton)was in the 2004/2005 cropping season at average temperatures 34.5C and 35.2C, and total rainfall of 556.2 and 400mm respectively. Sorghum produced highest total production (1,9673 ton) in 2008/2009 cropping season and lowest (2,863 ton) in 2004/2005 in the same climatic factors degree of millet. The highest production of sesame was (1,8617 ton) in 2007/2008 cropping season while the lowest (3,217 ton) was recorded in 2004/2005 cropping season at average temperatures 34.6C and 35.2C, and total rainfall of 647and 400mm respectively. Accordingly, in groundnut production the analysis showed that the highest production was (16,406 ton) in the 2009/2010 cropping season while lowest (4,535 ton) was in 2005/2006 at average temperatures 34.6C and 35.2C, and total rainfall equal to 556.2 and 400 mm respectively. We concluded that the production increase with reasonable climatic variable such as rainfall and temperature and humidity.

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