International Integration as a Lever for Vietnam’s Double-Digit Economic Growth in the Period 2025–2030

Abstract

Huynh Thanh Dien

This paper analyzes the role of international integration as a lever for enabling Vietnam to achieve double-digit economic growth in the period 2025–2030. Building on endogenous growth theory, new institutional economics, and global value chain analysis, the study argues that next-generation integration not only expands markets but also exerts pressure on institutional reforms, data standardization, and firm upgrading. The research employs a mixed-methods approach, combining qualitative analysis of Vietnam’s integration trajectory and policy reforms with quantitative assessment of macroeconomic indicators (TFP, DVA, logistics costs, and FDI) during 2010–2024, benchmarked against newly industrialized economies (NICs). Findings suggest that sustaining growth requires raising TFP by 3–4% annually, increasing domestic value-added above 55%, and enhancing market access through compliance with green and digital standards. An integrated analytical framework is proposed, comprising global context, foundational conditions, institutional and data coordination, operating mechanisms (domestic firms, FDI, external supply chains), and expected outcomes. The study concludes that international integration can only generate breakthrough growth when embedded within an integrated model that links external opportunities with internal reforms.

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