Dynamic and Asymmetric Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and Economic Growth in Tunisia

Abstract

Mohamed Riadh Cherif*

This study investigates the dynamic and asymmetric effects of climate variability on agricultural productivity and econom- ic growth in Tunisia from 1974 to 2023. Unlike conventional linear analyses, we adopt an integrated econometric strategy combining Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL), and Quantile ARDL (QARDL) models. This approach captures both threshold effects and distributional heterogeneity in climate impacts. Empirical results show that a 1°C temperature increase leads to a long-run decline of about 1.2% in agricultural GDP, while equivalent decreases yield no significant response, highlighting asymmetric thermal effects.

Precipitation shortages exert more than double the impact of surpluses, with adverse effects amplified during recessions. Quantile estimations reveal structural disparities: smallholders rely heavily on imports for climate adaptation, while large farms, despite higher productivity, are more exposed to combined heat and water stress. Diagnostic tests confirm model validity and robust cointegration. Beyond methodological contributions, the findings stress the need for differentiated climate policies, including progressive water pricing, targeted subsidies for efficient irrigation technologies, and capacity-building for small producers. These insights provide evidence-based guidance for enhancing climate resilience in Tunisia and other semi-arid economies.

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