The Factors of Certainty, Severity and Celerity Influence on General Prohibition of Imprisonment: The Case of Mongolia

Abstract

Enkhbold Batzeveg, Munkhzul Baatar and Zumberellkham Dorjdamba

Our study examines the influence of the key elements of deterrence theory—certainty, severity, and celerity of punishment—on the general prohibition of imprisonment in Mongolia. Using a quantitative research approach, the study evaluates how these factors contribute to the deterrent function of criminal sanctions within the Mongolian criminal justice system. The findings indicate that the measurement model demonstrates acceptable reliability and construct validity, with most factor loading exceeding 0.6. The constructs of certainty, severity, and celerity show strong reliability and satisfactory convergent validity, confirming their suitability for measuring the main dimensions of deterrence theory. Among these constructs, severity shows the strongest measurement quality, followed by celerity and certainty, while the general prohibition of imprisonment construct shows relatively weaker convergent validity.

The path analysis results reveal that certainty and severity of punishment have statistically significant positive effects on the general prohibition of imprisonment, whereas celerity does not demonstrate a significant influence. These findings suggest that the likelihood of punishment and the perceived seriousness of sanctions play a more influential role in deterrence than the speed with which punishment is imposed.

Our study provides partial empirical support for classical deterrence theory within the Mongolian context and highlights the importance of strengthening the certainty and proportional severity of punishment in order to enhance the deterrent effect of criminal sanctions and contribute to crime prevention.

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