The ESG Spectrum: Differentiated Market Reactions to Environmental, Social, and Governance Performance in the Critical Raw Materials Sector

Abstract

Henry Efe Onomakpo Onomakpo*

This study investigates the financial impact of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) performance in the global Critical Raw Materials (CRM) sector. Using a sample of 25 publicly listed CRM firms from 2018 to 2024, companies were segmented into "Laggard," "Improver," and "Leader" portfolios based on ESG risk ratings. A multi-method framework was applied, combining multivariate panel regressions, time-series models (GARCH, VAR), and machine learning (LASSO) to disentangle the financial effects of the E, S, and G dimensions. The research challenges the monolithic view of ESG performance by testing for non-linear, portfolio-dependent relationships between sustainability indicators and stock returns in a strategically vital industry. Results reveal a significant “ESG tug-of-war” among Improver firms: while markets reward social performance, they appear to penalize environmental and governance initiatives, likely due to transition-related costs. In contrast, ESG impacts for Laggard and Leader firms are statistically insignificant, suggesting either market indifference or fully priced-in performance. These findings offer a nuanced framework for understanding the conditional financial materiality of ESG. They have direct implications for investment strategies, sustainability reporting, and policy formulation in resource-intensive sectors navigating the energy transition.

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