Smart Pre-Decision Accounting: A Digital-Twin-Driven Framework for National Project Trade-Offs – Global Evidence

Abstract

Amin El Sayed Ahmed Lotfy

Purpose This study aims to design a Smart Pre-Decision Accounting Framework that employs digital twin simulation and real- options analysis to evaluate national project trade-offs before implementation. The framework provides policymakers with scientifically modeled scenarios for governance, privatization, or partnership alternatives to optimize national value creation and resource efficiency.

Design/Methodology/Approach The study integrates counterfactual simulation, reference-class forecasting, and real-options valuation within a digital twin environment. It applies a comparative mixed method approach, combining econometric forecasting for Egypt’s national projects with benchmark data from advanced and emerging economies to test predictive validity and scenario adaptability.

Findings Results demonstrate that using digital-twin-driven accounting enables governments to visualize multidimensional trade- offs (financial, social, and strategic) before committing resources. The framework reduces policy uncertainty, enhances governance quality, and supports data-driven decision-making for public investment portfolios.

Theoretical, Practical, Economic, and Social Implications Theoretically, the study extends decision-usefulness theory to pre-decision contexts. Practicality establishes a structured accounting model for evaluating national project alternatives. Economically, it improves capital allocation efficiency and mitigates costly misallocations. Socially, it strengthens transparency and intergenerational equity in national asset management.

Originality and Value This is the first accounting-based model combining digital twin simulation and real-options thinking to support pre- decision evaluation of national investments, offering a novel mechanism for sustainable public wealth management.

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