Forensic Analysis and Accountability in Sudan’s Collapse: Documenting Atrocities, Securing Justice, and Breaking the Cycle of Impunity

Abstract

Issam AW Mohamed

This paper provides a forensic analysis of the Sudanese state collapse following the 2019 revolution, focusing on the power struggle between General Abdel Fattah al Burhan and General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (“Hemedti”). Integrating political psychology, demographic theory, economic analysis, and forensic criminology, the study examines how military elite rivalry produced systematic human rights violations, infrastructure destruction, and social fragmentation. Drawing on primary forensic evidence—mass grave documentation, satellite imagery analysis, survivor testimonies, digital open source intelligence (OSINT), financial records, and international legal filings—the paper demonstrates that the conflict constitutes war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide under the Rome Statute. It evaluates existing and potential accountability mechanisms: the International Criminal Court (ICC) investigation, universal jurisdiction cases, UN fact finding missions, sanctions regimes, and proposed hybrid tribunal. The findings reveal that without robust forensic evidence collection and a credible accountability framework, Sudan’s conflict trap will persist, enabling future atrocities and preventing democratic transition. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for strengthening forensic capacity, ensuring victim participation, and breaking the structural impunity that has characterised Sudanese military governance since independence.

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