Drought Patterns and Their Effects on Agriculture in Somalia: A Comprehensive Review

Abstract

Abdiaziz Hassan Nur, Sharmake Mohamed Ahmed, Ilyas Ibrahim Nageye, Abdilatif Hussein Omar, Jamal Abdikarim Mohamed and Abdullahi Ali Ibrahim

Somalia faces a critical climate emergency, marked by droughts that are becoming more frequent, severe, and prolonged, causing significant harm to its agriculture-based economy and society. This review provides a comprehensive synthesis and analysis of the diverse effects of repeated droughts on Somalia’s agricultural sector, encompassing crop yields, livestock, and overall food security. Using a qualitative literature review approach, the study draws upon a wide array of sources, including peer-reviewed research, reports from international organizations such as the UN, World Bank, and FAO, as well as national policy documents. The findings reveal a rapid warming trend and increasingly erratic and failing rainy seasons, which are the primary drivers of meteorological and agricultural drought.

These patterns have led to the systemic collapse of climate-sensitive livelihoods. Rain-fed crop production has been decimated, with yields falling by as much as 70% during major droughts, while the pastoral sector has suffered catastrophic livestock losses, a critical blow to the financial and social fabric of rural communities. The direct consequence is widespread food insecurity, acute malnutrition, and one of the world's largest internal displacement crises, as millions are forced to abandon their lands. While Somalia has established foundational policy frameworks like the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) and is advancing early warning systems, these efforts are critically undermined by weak institutional capacity, insecurity, and a significant climate finance gap. This review concludes by offering a set of integrated recommendations focused on strengthening governance, investing in climate-resilient water management and agricultural practices, enhancing livelihood diversification, and mobilizing sustainable finance.

The paper underscores the urgent need for a paradigm shift from reactive humanitarian aid to proactive, long-term resilience-building to secure a sustainable future for Somali agriculture.

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