Coupled Thermo–Hydro–Mechanical Damage and GIS-Based Risk Framework for Pothole Formation in Maritime Freeze–Thaw Asphalt Pavements

Abstract

Paul T E Cusack

Pothole formation in maritime cold regions is governed by coupled thermal, hydraulic, and mechanical processes involving freeze–thaw cycling, moisture ingress, and traffic-induced fatigue. This paper presents a continuum damage mechanics (CDM) framework integrated with GIS-based spatial risk mapping and lifecycle cost optimization. The model quantifies damage evolution as a nonlinear function of viscoelastic stress, freeze–thaw expansion strain, and axle load intensity. A probabilistic failure formulation is introduced for municipal prioritization. Application to maritime urban networks demonstrates that drainage improvement, polymer-modified asphalt, and traffic load redistribution reduce pothole formation by 30–70% and lifecycle costs by 20–40%.

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