International Economic Relations and National Economic Security of Russia in the Context of Global Challenges

Introduction

In the context of the growing disintegration of international relations and the formation of new centers of influence in the global arena, the analysis of the dynamics of economic interactions between states is becoming especially relevant. This is of paramount importance for the Russian Federation, which is striving to ensure the stability of its economic system in the context of the transformation of the geopolitical environment. In the context of the evolution of the global economic architecture, there is a tendency to reduce the level of interdependence between individual states, which is accompanied by the intensification of regional alliances and associations based on common interests.

To understand how these processes affect Russia's economic development and what challenges may arise in the future, it is necessary to carefully study the mechanisms of interaction between states at the global and regional levels. This will allow Russia not only to adapt to new realities, but also to strengthen its position in the global economy, minimizing the risks associated with external shocks.

The impact of these trends on national economic security is expressed in several aspects. Firstly, changes in the structure of international trade may lead to a redistribution of trade flows and a change in the competitiveness of Russian goods and services on the world market. Secondly, the growing influence of transnational corporations may create both opportunities for attracting investment and technology, and threats in the form of dependence on external economic actors. Thirdly, the processes of economic integration and regionalization may contribute to the expansion of sales markets and the strengthening of economic ties, but may also limit the sovereignty and independence of the national economy.

In addition, the evolution of financial markets and international financial institutions has a significant impact on the financial stability of the Russian Federation. Changes in the global financial system may lead to fluctuations in exchange rates, instability in stock markets and other financial risks that require an adequate response from government agencies and financial institutions.

Thus, the analysis of trends in the development of international economic relations allows us to identify key challenges and opportunities for ensuring the national economic security of the Russian Federation. To effectively respond to these challenges, it is necessary to develop and implement a comprehensive strategy aimed at strengthening economic sustainability, increasing competitiveness and protecting national interests in the context of globalization.

Methods

The methods of studying the development of international economic relations represent a comprehensive toolkit that allows for a deep analysis and forecasting of the dynamics of global economic processes. Let us consider the fundamental methods used in this work from the point of view of their theoretical validity and practical effectiveness :

• Statistical analysis is a fundamental method based on the collection and processing of data on international economic flows, such as trade turnover, foreign direct investment, international financial transactions and debt obligations. The use of statistical methods allows us to identify trends, patterns and cause-and-effect relationships in the development of international economic relations, which contributes to more accurate forecasting and the development of well-founded recommendations.

• Comparative analysis is a methodological strategy aimed at comparing economic indicators and characteristics of different countries and regions. This approach allows identifying differences and similarities in the degree of integration of states into the global economic system, which is especially important for assessing the effectiveness of foreign economic policy and identifying factors that contribute to economic growth.

• Analysis of documents and reports of international organizations is an important source of information on trends, problems and prospects for the development of international economic relations. Reports and publications of such organizations as the World Trade Organization (WTO), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) contain valuable analytical material based on global data and the results of long-term research.

• Systems analysis considers international economic relations as a complex system consisting of many interconnected elements. Analysis of the structure, functions and dynamics of this system allows us to identify key factors and mechanisms influencing its development, which contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of global economic processes.

• Qualitative analysis is aimed at studying and interpreting text, documentary and other sources containing information on the qualitative characteristics and trends in the development of international economic relations. This method allows us to identify the underlying causes and consequences of economic phenomena, as well as to develop recommendations for their management.

Results

In 2025, the prospects for the development of international economic relations are characterized by a number of key trends reflecting the complex and multifaceted processes of globalization, digitalization and sustainable development. Trends in the development of international economic relations can have both a positive and negative impact on Russia’s national economic security, for example:

• Strengthening regional economic blocs and integration processes can create both new opportunities for cooperation and new challenges in the form of increased competition and the need to adapt to new rules and standards. It is important for Russia to actively participate in the formation of integration processes that are beneficial to itself and to protect its economic interests.

• The growing influence of developing countries may lead to a change in the balance of power in the global economy and the formation of new centers of economic influence. This may affect trade flows and investment opportunities for Russia. It is important to diversify economic ties and find new partners to reduce the risks of dependence on individual markets.

• The development of digital technologies can open up new opportunities for international trade and cooperation, but it can also increase competition from technologically advanced countries. Russia needs to invest in the development of digital technologies and training of personnel to effectively participate in the digital economy.

• The increasing importance of green technologies and sustainable development can create new markets and opportunities for Russian companies specializing in environmentally friendly technologies. However, this will also require adaptation to new environmental standards and regulations. It is important for Russia to develop a “green” economy and meet international requirements in this area.

• Adaptation of economic strategies to changing geopolitical conditions is necessary to ensure economic security in the context of globalization and increased competition. Russia should develop and implement strategies aimed at reducing dependence on individual markets and increasing the resilience of the economy to external shocks.

• Finding new ways of cooperation and compromise between major economic powers can help Russia overcome trade imbalances and improve access to international markets. However, this will also require flexibility and a willingness to compromise in international economic relations.

• The development of multipolarity in the global economymay create a more balanced and sustainable global economic system, but it may also complicate forecasting and risk management for Russia. It is important to take into account the diversity of economic interests and strategies of different countries when developing their economic policies.

• Continued digitalization of economic processes may lead to the transformation of traditional trade models and the emergence of new forms of interaction. Russia needs to actively introduce digital technologies into the economy and ensure cybersecurity to protect economic interests.

• Increasing the role of international organizations in regulating economic relations may contribute to the creation of a more stable and predictable international economic environment. However, it may also limit some aspects of Russia's economic policy in accordance with international requirements and recommendations.

• Increased competition between technology giants could impact the competitiveness of Russian companies in international markets. Russia needs to support and develop its own technology companies, as well as create favorable conditions for innovation and investment in high-tech industries. Threats to the national economic security of the Russian Federation in the context of deglobalization are manifested in a number of key aspects that require careful analysis and assessment.

Firstly, there is a significant increase in protectionist measures aimed at protecting national economies from external shocks. In the context of globalization, the practice of free trade has contributed to the integration of national markets and the formation of a single economic space. However, in the context of deglobalization, protectionism is becoming the main instrument of economic policy in many countries, which creates significant obstacles to further integration.

Germany, for example, is actively implementing protectionist mechanisms to protect its domestic market from foreign competition, especially from Chinese companies, which demonstrate high competitiveness in a number of industries. Similar measures are being taken in India, where economic policy is aimed at supporting domestic producers and reducing dependence on external factors.

The strengthening of protectionist tendencies at the global level may have serious consequences, including the emergence of economic conflicts similar to the one observed between the United States of America and the People's Republic of China. These conflicts may lead to the destabilization of the world economic system and a decrease in the level of international economic integration.

Let us consider the dynamics of foreign trade operations of the Russian Federation in the context of the transformation of modern international economic relations, characterized by a high degree of uncertainty and volatility.

In the first quarter of 2025, the dynamics of export operations of the Russian Federation underwent significant changes. According to the Federal Customs Service (FCS), the value of exports of goods decreased by 4% compared to the same period of the previous year. It is important to emphasize that in the fourth quarter of 2024, there was an increase in export indicators by 7%, which indicates the cyclical nature of foreign trade processes and their dependence on global economic factors.

An analysis of the export structure for January-February 2025 revealed key factors that influenced the decline in its value. Firstly, there was a significant reduction in the export of mineral products due to the fall in world prices for oil and coal. In addition, the voluntary reduction in oil production under the OPEC+ agreement had an additional negative impact on this segment.

The export of food products and agricultural raw materials also demonstrated negative dynamics. This is due to a decrease in the grain harvest in 2024 compared to the previous year, as well as a reduction in the grain export quota. These factors led to a decrease in the volume of export deliveries of this category of goods.

Despite the above trends, the reduction in exports of mineral products and foodstuffs was partially offset by an increase in the value of exports of chemical products, machinery, equipment, vehicles and other industrial goods. This indicates a diversification of the export base and an increase in the competitiveness of Russian products in international markets.

Additionally, in January-February 2025, there was an increase in the value of exports of metals and products made from them. This is due to an increase in world prices for many non-ferrous and precious metals, which contributed to an increase in export revenues in this segment. However, it should be noted that metal exports were limited by a number of measures introduced by Western countries, which had a negative impact on this market.

There have also been significant changes in the context of the geographical structure of exports. Europe's share in total exports has fallen to 15%, indicating a redistribution of trade flows. At the same time, Asia has retained its dominant position, accounting for 76% of total exports. Africa's share, on the contrary, has increased to 6%, indicating an expansion of the geography of export deliveries.

In the first quarter of 2025, the global oil market was characterized by relative price stability, which remained at the level of the previous reporting period. This phenomenon was due to a number of factors, including oil production restrictions established under the OPEC+ agreement, as well as concerns about possible supply disruptions caused by geopolitical and economic risks.

However, compared to the same period of the previous year, there was a significant decrease in oil prices. This trend was caused by a combination of macroeconomic factors, including risks associated with global economic growth and a decrease in demand for energy resources. These factors include the tightening of trade barriers, expressed in the increase of customs duties by the United States of America and retaliatory measures by trading partners.

According to the World Bank, the average price of Brent crude oil in the first quarter of 2025 decreased by 9% compared to the first quarter of 2024, amounting to US$76 per barrel. The price of Russian Urals crude oil also showed negative dynamics, reaching US$63 per barrel, which reflects the persistence of a significant discount compared to the benchmark grade.

The discount of Russian Urals crude to Brent increased to 17% in the first quarter of 2025, a deterioration compared to the previous quarter (14%). This trend was due to the introduction of new restrictions imposed by Western countries on Russian oil exports. In January 2025, the United States of America initiated sanctions against oil tankers, which led to additional risks for the transportation of Russian oil exports.

In January 2025, the United States of America initiated sanctions against oil tankers, which led to additional risks for the transportation of Russian oil. In February 2025, the European Union expanded the list of vessels subject to restrictions as part of the 16th package of sanctions against the Russian Federation, which increased pressure on logistics chains and increased freight costs.

As a result of these factors, freight costs for transporting Russian oil increased, and foreign buyers demanded more significant discounts, which led to a further decline in the market price of oil.

Sanctions and voluntary reductions in oil production in the Russian Federation under the OPEC+ agreements have had a significant impact on the physical volumes of oil exports from the country, limiting its access to international markets.

In addition, adverse weather conditions in ports had a negative impact on exports, leading to temporary suspension of shipments and creating additional logistical risks.

The export of petroleum products was also limited as a result of scheduled and unscheduled maintenance work at oil refineries. The ban on gasoline exports was extended until the end of August 2025. However, this restriction did not apply to direct producers, which allowed them to partially compensate for the reduction in export opportunities.

In the first quarter of 2025, there was a significant increase in global natural gas prices compared to previous levels. This trend was driven by a number of factors, including the accelerated depletion of gas reserves in the European Union, rising energy demand in Turkey, and uncertainty about future supplies.

According to the World Bank, the world natural gas price index in the first quarter of 2025 showed an increase of 24% compared to the previous period and 66% compared to the same quarter of 2024. This jump indicates a significant increase in the cost of gas on the global market, which was caused by both internal and external economic and geopolitical factors.

Natural gas exports from Russia to the European Union have fallen significantly following the cessation of supplies via Ukraine on 1 January 2025 due to the expiration of the transit agreement. Despite an increase in gas supplies via the Turkish Stream pipeline to the EU, the limited capacity of this route has not made it possible to compensate for the volumes that have ceased to flow via Ukraine.

Analytical data provided by the Bruegel Research Institute show that the physical volume of liquefied natural gas supplies from Russia to the European Union in the first quarter of 2025 remained at a level comparable to the same period in 2024. At the same time, the first quarter of 2025 saw a significant increase in the physical volume of gas supplies to China, which became possible after the Power of Siberia pipeline reached its design capacity on December 1, 2024. In March 2025, a new historical record was set for daily gas supplies to China, while supplies via the Power of Siberia pipeline were not interrupted even during maintenance periods.

In the first quarter of 2025, there were mixed dynamics in global market prices for goods in the Russian non-resource sector.

On the international market, coal prices fell due to oversupply and weaker demand in Asian countries. Iron ore prices remained roughly flat with the previous quarter, but were significantly lower than the same period in 2024 due to ongoing concerns about the global economy.

At the same time, prices for aluminum and copper showed growth, which is associated with increased demand caused by expectations of tariff increases by the United States of America. The world market also recorded an increase in the cost of fertilizers.

The global price of gold has reached a historic high, driven by increased investor interest in this safe haven asset amid growing global economic risks.

The physical volume of exports was limited due to sanctions imposed by foreign countries. These restrictions complicated logistics processes and international settlements.

In the first quarter of 2025, these restrictions were strengthened after the United States imposed sanctions on more than 180 vessels on January 10. The European Union, in turn, adopted the sixteenth package of sanctions against the Russian Federation on February 24, which included another 74 vessels on the sanctions list. As a result, 153 vessels were restricted from calling at EU ports and using the services of European operators related to maritime transport.

EU restrictions also affected the ports of Ust-Luga, Primorsk and Novorossiysk.

Difficulties in international payments have also had a negative impact on exports. The EU's 16th sanctions package includes the disconnection of another 13 financial institutions from the international financial messaging system SWIFT.

In February, the European Union also tightened sanctions on Russian metal exports. The quota for primary aluminum supplies from the Russian Federation to the EU was reduced, and a direct ban on its import to the EU was introduced on a permanent basis. These measures complement the existing EU embargo on processed aluminum and ferrous metal products.

Metal exports also continue to be restricted by sanctions from the United States and Great Britain.

In the first quarter of 2025, there is a negative trend in the sphere of services exports of the Russian Federation, which is expressed in a decrease in the cost of services provided by 2% compared to the same period of the previous year. It should be emphasized that in the fourth quarter of 2024, a positive trend was recorded, characterized by an increase in services exports by 3%.

In the first quarter of 2025, a decrease in imports of goods in value terms by 3% was recorded compared to the same period of the previous year. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the opposite trend was observed - an increase in imports by 11%.

According to the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation (FCS of Russia), in January-February 2025, the largest reduction in imports was recorded in the category "Machinery, equipment, vehicles and other products". This is due to a significant reduction in the import of vehicles caused by an increase in the recycling fee, which came into force on January 1, 2025.

The decline in demand for imported goods was also due to an increase in interest rates compared to the same period of the previous year and high levels of warehouse stocks.

The parallel import mechanism, which previously helped to support the import of goods into Russia, is gradually losing its effectiveness due to the reduction in the list of goods subject to parallel import.

Domestic demand, although showing a slowdown in growth compared to the same period of the previous year, remained at a fairly high level, which continued to support imports. An important factor contributing to the reorientation to alternative suppliers was the change in logistics routes and sources of supply in the context of sanctions pressure.

According to the Federal Customs Service of Russia, in January- February 2025, imports of goods from European countries decreased by 9% compared to the same period of the previous year. At the same time, imports from countries in the Asia-Pacific region and Africa increased. As a result, the share of European imports in the total volume of Russian imports of goods decreased to 24%, Asian imports increased to 69%, and African imports to 2%.

In June of this year, the Russian ruble demonstrated a slight strengthening against the US dollar. This positive trend has been observed for seven months in a row, starting from December of the previous year.

The key factor influencing the ruble exchange rate remains the high attractiveness of ruble debt and interest-bearing assets for domestic and foreign investors in the context of the tightening of the monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.

According to the results of June 2025, the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Russian ruble fell by 0.2%, reaching 78.47 rubles per unit of the American currency. The exchange rate of the Chinese yuan strengthened by 0.5%, amounting to 10.94 rubles per yuan. The US dollar index (DXY), reflecting the dynamics of the dollar exchange rate against a basket of six major currencies, fell by 2.5% over the period under review.

In the context of continuing geopolitical instability and fluctuations in the currency market, a tendency towards their stabilization is noted. The rates of major foreign currencies against the Russian ruble demonstrate minor fluctuations: the US dollar rate fell from 4.4% in May to 1.2% in June, and the yuan rate from 3.8% to 1.5%, respectively.

The ratio of net foreign exchange sales to foreign exchange export revenues of the largest exporters shows steady growth: in April 2025, this figure was 100%, an increase of 3 percentage points compared to March 2025.

In the context of current economic dynamics and foreign trade trends, the forecast of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation regarding global economic growth for the period 2025-2026 has been adjusted downwards. This adjustment is based on a comprehensive economic analysis of macroeconomic factors and their interrelations.

One of the key factors influencing the forecast is the expected increase in the inflation rate in the United States of America in 2025. This is due to the fact that the increase in import duties leads to an increase in production costs for American companies, which is translated into an increase in prices for final products. At the same time, a decrease in inflationary pressure is expected in the eurozone and China. This trend is caused by the strengthening of the euro and yuan against the US dollar, which helps reduce the cost of imports for these regions. In addition, China is experiencing an increase in disinflationary trends due to excess supply in the domestic market.

The interest rate forecasts of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) were also revised downwards. This is due to the revision of monetary policy in response to a more significant negative impact of tariffs on production processes than previously estimated. In an environment of increased volatility and uncertainty, central banks are seeking more flexible regulation of financial markets, which implies the need to revise current economic forecasts.

The foreign economic strategy of the United States of America has had a significant impact on global economic forecasts, leading to their downward adjustment. This macroeconomic turnaround has contributed to a decrease in the cost of raw materials on world markets.

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has revised its forecasts for the price of Russian oil for tax purposes, lowering them to $60 per barrel for the current year. It is expected that in the medium term, oil prices will stabilize at this level, which will have a significant impact on the country's economic policy and the global energy situation.

In the context of deglobalization, the economy of the Russian Federation faces a number of challenges related to its high dependence on the external economic situation. In sectors where Russia has clear competitive advantages, Western countries actively use protectionist barriers to protect their national producers. This violates the fundamental principles of the World Trade Organization (WTO), which is a key institution in regulating international economic relations.

Today, the WTO regulates a wide range of international economic relations, covering 14 key areas. It was planned that in the 21st century, new trade agreements would contribute to the formation of a more open and free global economic system, covering about 40 areas. However, reality shows that many WTO member countries do not always comply with the established rules and regulations, which undermines trust in this organization.

An example of the discrepancy between rhetoric and practice is the blocking of Russian nuclear energy projects in a number of European countries. This has a negative impact on the position of Rosatom, one of the leaders in this industry. Such actions undermine the foundations of international cooperation and contribute to the strengthening of protectionist tendencies, which may ultimately lead to the destabilization of the global economic system.

Discussion

In the context of sanctions pressure, the international economic relations of the Russian Federation are undergoing significant transformations, caused by a combination of factors, including geopolitical tensions, economic sanctions, and counter-sanctions. Sanctions measures taken by Western countries represent a set of restrictions aimed at limiting the access of Russian companies to international financial markets, advanced technologies, and sales markets.

In the context of global economic interactions, a number of key challenges and risks to economic security can be identified:

• The use by developed countries of their economic dominance and modern technologies, including information technologies, as a tool of geopolitical competition. This leads to increased disproportions in the global economic space.

• Growing financial imbalances and increasing public debt, as well as the gap between the fundamental value of assets and their reflection in derivative financial instruments. These phenomena create the preconditions for economic instability.

• The use of discriminatory trade practices in relation to key sectors of the Russian economy, restriction of access to international financial resources and advanced technologies. This has a negative impact on the competitiveness of the Russian economic system.

• Increased geopolitical tensions in the areas of strategic interest of the Russian Federation and near its borders. This creates additional risks for economic security.

• Increased volatility in global commodity and service markets. This makes it more difficult to forecast and manage economic risks.

• Transformation of the structure of global demand for energy resources. Development of energy-saving technologies, reduction of material intensity and growth of investments in "green" technologies require adaptation of the Russian economy to new realities.

• The activities of interstate economic associations created without the participation of the Russian Federation in key areas of regulation of trade, economic and financial-investment relations. This may contradict national interests and create barriers to economic development.

• The limited scale of non-resource exports of the Russian Federation due to its low competitiveness, insufficient development of market infrastructure and weak integration into global value chains. This hinders the diversification of the economy.

• Slow economic growth rates due to internal factors. These include limited access to long-term financial resources, underdeveloped transport and energy infrastructure, and structural problems in the economy.

• Increasing global competition for highly qualified personnel. This requires the Russian Federation to increase the attractiveness of its educational and professional systems, as well as to create favorable conditions for retaining and attracting talented specialists.

• In response to the challenges associated with the introduction of restrictive measures, Russia has developed and implemented a set of measures to ensure economic stability and sustainability. Adaptation of the foreign economic strategy to new geopolitical realities has allowed the Russian Federation to maintain economic independence and stability in the face of unprecedented sanctions pressure.

Conclusions

In the context of global geopolitical transformation caused by multifactorial changes in the global political system, the Russian Federation focuses on the strategic development of international economic relations. The key aspect of this policy is strengthening partnerships with friendly states, as well as active involvement in cooperation with new actors in the international arena. This strategy is aimed at diversifying foreign economic relations and minimizing dependence on states that adhere to unfriendly policies. This, in turn, ensures the sustainability and predictability of foreign economic operations, which is critically important for maintaining economic stability and sustainable growth.

The Russian Federation strives to form a multi-vector and balanced foreign economic policy that will allow it to effectively adapt to new challenges and opportunities in the global economic landscape.

An analysis of the dynamics of trade flows between Russia and friendly countries shows a gradual increase in the volume of trade turnover. The leader by a significant margin is China, followed by Turkey. There is also a tendency for the share of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) member countries to grow in the total volume of foreign trade operations. At the same time, a significant reduction in imports from European countries is noted, which is due to geopolitical and economic factors.

The structure of Russian exports has also undergone significant changes. Currently, the main buyers of Russian goods are China and India, which indicates an expansion of the geography of export deliveries and an active search for new sales markets.

An analysis of current trends in international economic relations of the Russian Federation allows us to identify a number of key aspects that influence the economic dynamics of the state. Firstly, sanctions restrictions have a negative impact on the investment climate, which leads to a decrease in the inflow of foreign capital investments and a limitation of opportunities for the modernization of production facilities. Secondly, restrictions on access to international financial markets make it difficult to finance large infrastructure projects and develop high-tech industries.

However, despite the existing challenges, the Russian Federation demonstrates the ability to adapt to changing conditions and find alternative development paths. The import substitution strategy aimed at developing domestic production and reducing dependence on imported supplies allows minimizing the negative consequences of sanctions and strengthening the economic independence of the state. In addition, intensified cooperation with the states of Asia, Africa and Latin America contributes to the diversification of trade flows and the reduction of risks associated with sanctions pressure.

Thus, modern international economic relations of the Russian Federation in the conditions of sanctions pressure are characterized by complex and multifaceted processes. Despite the existing challenges, the Russian Federation demonstrates resilience andthe ability to adapt to changing realities, which allows maintaining economic stability and developing strategic areas of economic growth.

Transformational processes in the sphere of international economic and financial relations of the Russian Federation are carried out taking into account national priorities and are aimed at increasing the level of financial and technological autonomy of the state. These processes are also aimed at diversifying and optimizing the structure of the Russian financial market, with the aim of positioning it as an attractive object for foreign investors. The strategy also provides for the development of equal and mutually beneficial partnerships with friendly countries, which contributes to strengthening the multipolar world order and reducing dependence on global economic centers [1-2].

Acknowledgements

The publication was prepared within the framework of the state assignment for 2025 No. 075-03-2025-526 “Conceptual approaches to the formation of mechanisms of national economic sovereignty of the Russian Federation in the context of unprecedented global challenges”.

References

1. Prokushev, E. F. (2023). Foreign economic activity: a textbook and practical training for universities / E. F. Prokushev, A. A. Kostin; edited by E. F. Prokushev. - 12th ed., revised. and additional. - Moscow: Publishing house Yurait, 2023. - 479p. - Text: electronic // Yurait: electronic library system.
2. Federal Customs Service of Russia: [Official website]. Text: electronic.